Electoral scene

BJP & Five State Elections: State of Play || Midweek Matters 37 | Parakala Prabhakar https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aCW8fRu-QU4 Nov 10, 2021

The BJP National Executive Committee meeting,  Newspapers told us,   discussed its Rana Niti, meaning strategy, for the impending elections to the five state Assemblies. We all know that real strategies are not discussed in such formal and large forums.

It is important for the signals its proceedings sent out, combined with the messages the party's supreme leader and Prime Minister conveyed to the people of India from his recent trip abroad, and from his itinerary after he returned to India. Signals from these three sets of activities are important for us to understand what is on the top of the mind of the ruling party and its mascot. 

Hindu vote consolidation is the signal. meta narrative is that 2024 and 2022 UP win is essential to pursue Hindu pride. 

UP Polls And Yogi Adityanath's Visit to Kairana   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bEHPmqqhNFA
Nov 10, 2021 The Wire

उत्तर प्रदेश के मुख्यमंत्री योगी आदित्यनाथ सोमवार को राज्य के शामली जिले के कैराना पहुंचे थे. सीएम योगी ने इन परिवारों से कहा कि आप लोगों को डरने की जरूरत नहीं है, सरकार पूरी तरह से आपके साथ है. यूपी के सीएम आदित्यनाथ का ये दौरा अगले विधानसभा चुनाव की एक रणनीति का हिस्सा भी माना जा रहा है, इस मुद्दे पर वरिष्ठ पत्रकार शरत प्रधान का नज़रिया.
Uttar Pradesh's Chief Minister-- Yogi Adityanath on Monday visited Shamli district. The region of Kairana had witnessed an exodus by Hindu families allegedly post threats by Muslim neighbors. Speaking to the residents he assured them of safety and promised the support of his government.
His visit to Kairana is being seen in the light of a larger campaign strategy of the BJP for the upcoming assembly elections in UP. Senior journalist, Sharat Pradhan shares his insights on the issue.

Kejriwal Leaves Meeting in Huff as Farmers Quiz Delhi CM on Support for Article 370 Move https://thewire.in/politics/arvind-kejriwal-farmers-article-370
Farmers' leader Gurjant Singh Mansa told 'The Wire' that a politician who had supported the move to read down Article 370 could not fight for more power to states and farmers.

In a viral vdeo, Gurjant Singh Mansa, the district vice-president of the Punjab Kisan Union, is seen asking Kejriwal whether he thinks that the reading down of Article 370 is right or wrong. Hearing this question, Kejriwal asks, “How come this is a farmer’s issue?”

Gurjant then says, “It is an issue of the rights of farmers and the state. Those who make such rules for us are the same people who made these three farm laws.”

During the meeting, farmer leaders had a heated exchange of words with Kejriwal over more issues like more powers to states, the farm laws, the Union government’s move to increase the Border Security Force’s (BSF) jurisdiction from 15 km to 50 km in Punjab, the long pending issue of Sutlej Yamuna Link (SYL) canal and others.

Voting percentages 2021 bye elections: Vikas Jain; https://youtube.com/embed/XkmdQPi2MEQ?start=325&end=589 Nov 3 2021

taken from मोदी का खेल खत्म? I PM MODI I BY ELECTIONS I BJP

The BJP's vote in the by-election to three Lok Sabha seats has fallen by seven to twenty per cent. This decline shows that Modi's popularity has started declining sharply. The party has also suffered a severe setback in the assembly by-election. How will it affect the elections to other states including UP Uttarakhand?
लोकसभा की तीन सीटों पर हुए उप चुनाव में भाजपा का वोट सात से बीस फीसद तक गिर गया है .यह गिरावट दर्शाती है कि मोदी की लोकप्रियता में तेजी से गिरावट होने लगी हैं .विधान सभा के उप चुनाव में भी पार्टी को तगड़ा झटका लगा है.इसका यूपी उतराखंड समेत अन्य राज्यों के चुनाव पर क्या असर पड़ेगा? आज की जनादेश चर्चा इसी पर शाम सात बजे

Prashant Kishor’s prediction about BJP is bang on. India’s opposition has a lot to do with it  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v3yNLyvIY4c They say 'who needs enemies when you have friends like these'. For the BJP, who needs friends when you have enemies like these? Watch News Editor Ruhi Tewari in #PoliTricks.

This narrative that only a United Opposition can win, and so any action that individual parties take to jostle for political space.. is the dominant narrative.  But this means that it is only the anti-BJP sentiment which should move politics. 

The PK story only says: The BJP will be a force to reckon with for a long time.. Going by PK earlier analysis around Bangal elections, there is a claculation about the base voter,  which takes a long time to dissipate/or change.. And this one is around 20% solid base. ( post Ayodhya cum Gujarat, the remaining 19% is aspirational india and anti-corruption/dabang governance. It is this 19% that various parties like AAP and Trinamol is trying to woo ).

Meanwhile the absolute support base of Congress has dwindled down to eight-nine percent, despite such adverse circumstances.  Their hope lies in the regional differnces that will make the difference next time round.. and it is the same segment which AAP and Trinamol is trying to corner.  Therefore I do not expect any alliance, at lest before the election. At the most they will have a partial understanding in those constituency where all three know that the BJP will win hands down.  Each of these will be billed as "prestige battles.. like the recent bye-poll seat in Haryana!..

And so having a broad national prescription is a narrative which is being pushed by the same people who brought the narrative that swept the BJP to power in 2014!  They know  a blanket national alliance is just not possible. Also Congress has burnt its fingers aligning with dubious small parties which dont necessarily transfer their vote to the Congress.. 

It is not that Congress votes are not transferable to the alliance partner.. but that the party concerned should be credible and match the BJP somewhat.. So DMK, TRS, BJD, Shiv Sena/NCP, JLD etc can work..But these parties are not willing to give any quarter to the Congress, unless they see a wave like that being generated by Priyanka in UP happens.