Prashant Kishor’s prediction about BJP is bang on. India’s opposition has a lot to do with it https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v3yNLyvIY4c They say 'who needs enemies when you have friends like these'. For the BJP, who needs friends when you have enemies like these? Watch News Editor Ruhi Tewari in #PoliTricks.
This narrative that only a United Opposition can win, and so any action that individual parties take to jostle for political space.. is the dominant narrative. But this means that it is only the anti-BJP sentiment which should move politics.
The PK story only says: The BJP will be a force to reckon with for a long time.. Going by PK earlier analysis around Bangal elections, there is a claculation about the base voter, which takes a long time to dissipate/or change.. And this one is around 20% solid base. ( post Ayodhya cum Gujarat, the remaining 19% is aspirational india and anti-corruption/dabang governance. It is this 19% that various parties like AAP and Trinamol is trying to woo ).
Meanwhile the absolute support base of Congress has dwindled down to eight-nine percent, despite such adverse circumstances. Their hope lies in the regional differnces that will make the difference next time round.. and it is the same segment which AAP and Trinamol is trying to corner. Therefore I do not expect any alliance, at lest before the election. At the most they will have a partial understanding in those constituency where all three know that the BJP will win hands down. Each of these will be billed as "prestige battles.. like the recent bye-poll seat in Haryana!..
And so having a broad national prescription is a narrative which is being pushed by the same people who brought the narrative that swept the BJP to power in 2014! They know a blanket national alliance is just not possible. Also Congress has burnt its fingers aligning with dubious small parties which dont necessarily transfer their vote to the Congress..
It is not that Congress votes are not transferable to the alliance partner.. but that the party concerned should be credible and match the BJP somewhat.. So DMK, TRS, BJD, Shiv Sena/NCP, JLD etc can work..But these parties are not willing to give any quarter to the Congress, unless they see a wave like that being generated by Priyanka in UP happens.