What 2022 says..
Prashant Kishor Exclusive Interview On Election Results With Rajdeep Sardesai & Rahul Kanwal https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oMKLedgQzhs Mar 15, 2022
Battle for centre will be decided in 2024 not in the state elections.. While there is no opposition in the wings? Two years is a long time.. Also there is no ready made answer, but the alternative is possible as there is high inflation, low growth, high unemployment and 600 million people do not make Rs. 100 per day. While this did not get play in the 2022 as it was not highlighted they did not work for 2022. but could be made to be highlighted..
We should not create the narrative that BJP is the only party. Even today it holds sway in less than 50% of the area, or population. The Opposition could not put together a leader who is trusted, alongwith a compelling narrative, supported by strong party and a sustained campaign. In UP there was not real counter narrative beyond the fact that you want to defeat Modi and campaign was completely missing. Election rally is not the same a campaign. The traditional method of waking up just two or three months before an election, and do 200 public rallies, and only do bashing the BJP it is not going to work.
So opposition first of all should not take elections as a one month or two months exercise. You need face, but far more important is to build the narrative. Start as soon as possible with organisation work, revamp your candidates, booth level workers to be mobilised,
The idea of Congress will always have a future. Congress is not the one person. Congress has been in secular decline since 1985, and not all of it is because of one person. They require to change fundamentally the way they organise themselves, the way they conduct themselves, the way they do their mass outreach, the way they fight elections, everything needs to change and undergo significant change -- it will not come out .. it is like you have a cancer and you cannot treat with an anti-biotic.
If Congress has to revive itself it has to be a Long term approach - seven ten years. that doesnt mean that you cannot be a fighting machine in 2024 ( probably opportunistic?) But you have to have a long term plan for proper revival.
The West Bengal assembly election in 2021 and the Uttar Pradesh assembly election in 2022 had a common catchword: labharthi or beneficiary. The word is not new in politics but in the last five years, it has become the magic wand for the populist governments.
Now that Mamata Banerjee has returned to the throne, she needs to increase state revenues simply to continue the culture of dole politics. But how? The state has no big industry or investments. From 2011 to 2022, Banerjee had announced many times that industrialisation is her top priority. But statistics suggest that in terms of investment in any industry or business, West Bengal has a long way to go.
According to Anandabazar Patrika and the West Bengal Budget fiscal year 2023, the recent statistics released by the Central Industry and Business Ministry show that from January to July, investment amounting to Rs 1.7 lakh crore has come into India. However, West Bengal got only 1,663 crore – less than 1% of the total investment. So, the TMC government’s revenue mostly comes from state goods and services tax (SGST), stamps and registration fees, sales tax on petrol and diesel, and state excise.
Simply put, the TMC government is in a debt trap.
21/09/2022
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How BJP won UP Elections 2022? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7kHvkv_nbx4 Mar 14, 2022 (hindi)
The economy, law and order, administration and problems of UP have no synergy with the results of the recent assembly elections. There is debate among scholars as to how this happened? This is what Sheetal P Singh is asking retired IAS Raju Sharma. Raju Sharma says it is ironical that the the result is seen by secularists as a victory for the communal polarisation whereas the Hindtuva-vadis talk of it as a victory of development or good governance.
Upper caste Hindu consolidation trumped all the apparently non popular negative issues like stray cattle, corona, stringent use of admin/police machinery. The consolidation has taken place with a narrative of insecurity over the other community being the mafia which the regime is fighting against.
After this a certain amount of welfare, served as a tipping point.
Dangerous signs for Democracy? Why Prof Ashutosh Varshney is worried over UP assembly elections results ! https://youtu.be/f1u_x_r5jao?t=107 13 Mar 2022
यूपी का चुनाव । क्या है संकेत ? लोकतंत्र की जीत या संविधान को ख़तरा ? क्या है अल्पसंख्यक तबके के लिये संकेत ? वाजपेयी और मोदी में क्या है फ़र्क़ ? योगी के दुबारा चुने जाने का अर्थ ? आशुतोष ने अमेरिका में ब्राउन विश्वविद्यालय के मशहूर प्रो आशुतोष वार्ष्णेय से यूपी चुनाव के नतीजों पर बात की !
Electoral democracy vs constitutional democracy: Post-poll Ashutosh Varshney 12th March 2022 lessons https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/electoral-democracy-vs-constitutional-democracy-post-poll-lessons-7815935/ writes: Though minority rights are enshrined in India’s Constitution, election victories can now be used to create laws, or government policies that begin to attack precisely those rights.
Jinnah used to say Muslims woul dnot be secure in a Hindu dominated India and therefore a Pakistan was needed. The argument was wrong for nearly seven decades after independence. It is now begining to acquire a ring of truth. But democrati truths are fundamentally open-ended. Political struggles can alter them..
Five takeaways from UP—Modi’s better than Vajpayee and Congress wasted trump card Priyanka DILIP MANDAL 11 March, 2022 https://theprint.in/opinion/five-takeaways-from-up-modis-better-than-vajpayee-and-congress-wasted-trump-card-priyanka/867951/
Muslim vote can make the Samajwadi Party principal opposition force in UP. But to win, it has to build better rapport with the other backward castes and SCs.
BJP is system-defining party Indian politics has gone through a paradigm shift and that change is here to stay even if the party loses one or two elections.
AAP is threat to Congress . The most crucial test for the AAP will be the Gujarat assembly elections later this year
Congress and its leadership woes. The party has lost both its ideological differentiators and organisational base. It is not in a position to elect a full-time president and is not going for intra party elections. 2022-23 will be a year of opportunity for the party, provided it ramps up its machinery and performs well in Gujarat and Karnataka
the BSP also lost its ideological differentiator? The party has put too much emphasis on building bridges with the Brahmins and this strategy, though quite effective during SP-BSP duet, is not working ever since the community shifted towards the BJP.
Samajwadis and the Muslim question. he Muslim vote can keep a party relevant. It can make the SP principal opposition party. But it has to build better rapport with the other backward castes and Scheduled Castes.
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