Electoral scene

online meeting on the Civil Society Organisations' campaign in the Karnataka state poll was quite informative and enriching.

Here's the gist of the presentation on the campaign made by Yousuf Kanni -- a major speaker:

1. Constituency wise analysis of voting in the last three polls.
2. Identification of the marginal seats and concentrating on these
3. Concentrating on campaigns among minorities and Dalits.
4. Deployment of whole-time workers and their training.
5. Preparation of Report Cards and transmission.
6. To fight on our chosen terrain and not on the terrain chosen by them.
7. To be in touch with the minorities so that they don't react to provocations.
8. Enrolment of deleted and also new voters.
9. Contacting smaller parties to avoid anti-BJP vote splitting.
(Disclaimer: A few minor points might have been inadvertently missed out.)

While trying to factor in this valuable input in relation to the coming parliamentary poll, one'll have to, obviously, keep in mind the crucial distinction between a state poll and a national one.

In this context, in the last West Bengal state poll too, the civil society organisations plus a few smaller political outfits -- the CPI(ML) Liberation being by far the largest one -- mostly, though not exclusively, from under the banner of "No Vote to BJP" had played a very significant role. Postering, leafleting, small meetings etc. were organised all over the state. Also spirited campaigns in the social media. A beautiful video, not from under any banner, figuring quite a few well-known, and even legendary, faces in the entertainment industry captioned "Aami Anya Kothao Jaabo Naa" (Won't go anywhere else -- an obvious reference to the monstrous threat of the NRC) became viral.

However, one has to keep in mind that such ventures can, at most, work as force multipliers. Help to (only) amplify the thrusts of the major anti-BJP player(s). Nothing more than that.
But, this boost, at times, may turn out to be even the game-changer.
So...

Shared by SG:

These are the report cards from BAhutva Karnataka -

• https://bahutvakarnataka.wordpress.com/kar23reportcards/

• https://www.thenewsminute.com/article/karnataka-lesson-how-civil-society-groups-fought-hate-turned-democracy-watchdog-177206

• https://www.thenewsminute.com/article/karnataka-mandate-hindutva-hidden-and-flourishing-details-177448

• Some articles pertinent to karnataka elections above - including role of civil society

• https://bahutvakarnataka.wordpress.com/kar23reportcards/

• Campaign against hate speech - https://hatespeechbeda.wordpress.com/

S Sen:

summarised only Yousuf Kanni -- virtually the first "speaker" -- in real-time.

Anant Phadke: Good summary of the points made. Only two small additions needed - About 5000 volunteers worked in this campaign. Second;y. systematic tracking of hate speeches was done by volunteers followed by making complaint to the Election Commission. Out of 7complaints, one complaint resulted in lodging of an FRI against a BJP candidate. This tracking cutailed hate-speeches to a certain extent acting some kind a detereant.

Modi has lost the charm he had' By A GANESH NADAR May 19, 2023  https://www.rediff.com/news/interview/john-richard-lobo-modi-has-lost-the-charm-he-had/20230519.htm John Richard Lobo, who was elected a Congress MLA from Mangalore City South in 2013, could not retain his seat five years later, when he lost to the Bharatiya Janata Party's D Vedavyas Kamath.

In spite of losing the state, the BJP did well in coastal Karnataka and Bengaluru. What are the reasons? In coastal Karnataka there is a communal factor. Mangalore is the laboratory of Hindutva experiments. The experiments done here are projected in the entire country. It is the laboratory of the RSS.

Anybody who has been involved with politics at any level in India knows that a simplistic analysis of voter behaviour – while it may make for attractive headlines – is inherently inaccurate. Vote banks and caste support – while there are often trends of a caste or group favouring one party or the other – only provide part of the answer. A voter is a member of a caste or a community as well as a member of a gender and of an economic class. Does a 21-year-old have the same political loyalties as a 70-year-old of the same community? The media hysteria, or more accurately, the media-magnified BJP PR of “Modi magic” and the party’s invincibility seeks to simplify the voter’s complexity into a one-dimensional byte of information. This does a great disservice to Indian democracy.

https://thewire.in/politics/modi-magic-is-nothing-but-bjp-pr-amplified-by-media 

by Sarim Naved

19/05/2023

Cracks Appear in the Modi Coalition, and It’s Not Just Karnataka https://thewire.in/politics/narendra-modi-coalition-cracks-bjp The first significant constituency in the Modi coalition can, for want of a better word, be identified as “modernist” in its predisposition. This is essentially the 1991 Manmohan Singh constituency but has now expanded itself to include a technocratic impulse.- Arvind Panagariya  Surjit Bhalla,  Rajeev Chandrasekhar and ‘Metro Man’ E. Sreedharan . This constituency does not reject the idea of democracy. .prefers a ‘strong’ leader like Modi

Second: Corporate captains, cronies and crooks constitute the second important element in the Modi coalition. From the very respectable Tatas to the still-to-be-respected Adanis. As long as his government’s coercive powers are being used to degrade the trade unions and other troublesome sectors and as long as the public sector banks are placed at the disposal of corporate trickery,

Third: The Hindu constituency, the third element in the Modi coalition, is not a monolithic group. There are traditionalist, conservatives who are excited by the idea of a Hindu ‘renaissance’ but are uncomfortable with the Hindu-Muslim zero-sum game mindset; then there is the ‘communal’..and then there is the lumpen Hindutva crowd..senas, dals..

A significant subset of this constituency, of course, is the RSS establishment - the RSS’s middle rung has been introduced to the taste of easy prosperity, and these softened swayamsevaks are the prime minister’s secret allies against Mohan Bhagwat and other top Sangh leaders,..

Fourth: The Deshbhakti constituency  which accepts all anti-democratic measures and practices put in place by the ‘security’ establishment

Fifth: There is also a caste constituency. Under Modi, caste, sub-caste and sub-sub-caste identities, allegiances and animosities have been worked most comprehensively by the much-serenaded Chanakyas.

Sixth: there is the anti-Congress, anti-Gandhi family constituency.

In the coming days, the Modi coalition will see a silent struggle for dominance, with the Amit Shah-Yogi Adityanath faction demanding a more aggressive Hindu agenda, even if it means violence and disorder.