Posted by Omair Ahmad on Twitter

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1390634791742046219.html
https://mobile.twitter.com/OmairTAhmad/status/1390634791742046219

1. "Nobody shows as much class solidarity as the rich," forget where I read it, but this keeps ringing in my ears as journalists write, "India mishandled the second wave".No, dude, India mishandled the first, but it was largely the poor that paid the price, so you didn't care.

2. The idea that India successfully managed the first wave is based on low numbers of officially reported infections and casualties. Set aside the fact that these are likely underreports, EVERY SINGLE  OUNTRY IN SOUTH ASIA HAD SIMILAR NUMBERS.

3. India's response to the first wave cannot be measured by casualty rate by disease, because there was no perceptible difference in that with any other similar country. What it can be measured by is political and economic costs.

4. What did the regime do? There was no track and trace programme nationally. I returned from Kathmandu at the end of Feb, and all that was noted at the airport was my temperature. Because there was no tracking, we went straight to "community transmission".

5. Community transmission just means that we cannot identify the exact pathway of infections. The regime spent the whole year denying this. It has still not accepted this, with upward of 400,000 cases being reported daily! The sacrifice of science to optics was total

6. Then the regime and its sociopathic supporters in the media decided to  identify a pathway of spread: the Tablighi Jamaat, made them scapegoats, treated them as criminals. There was a high decibel campaign against Muslims, as "Corona Jihad"

7. (As I wrote then, I think the Jamaat leadership was stupid to hold its gathering in Delhi then. The Indian government might have been sleeping, but the Jamaat should have paid attention to the international situation. And trusting the regime after the Delhi pogrom was naïve.)

8. By not acknowledging community spread, and by blaming Muslims as the only vector of disease, the regime misinformed the public, created terror about being ill from Covid-19. Then there was the catastrophic lockdown. Not coordinated with any state government, 4 hours notice.

9. There was no plan, no end date, no provisions for the vast section of the Indian economy that are in the informal sector, and cannot "Work From Home". After weeks, they started walking, cycling,  itching rides home. It was the greatest forced migration since Partition.

10. It was also incredibly cruel. Police punished people at borders, sprayed them with chemicals, beat fruit and vegetable vendors on the street. People were filmed eating rotting fruit, even roadkill,  because they had nothing else. Tens of millions were pushed into poverty

11. When the government acted, it first denied that there was any such exodus, or any such worry.
It looked at millions of desperate, starving, terrified people, and said, "Meh." Then it finally set up trains, that had no food and water, and went to wrong destinations.

12. Can you imagine, a poor person finally gets a train ticket to get home because they cannot earn their living in the big city, and literally dies of dehydration on the train journey to the wrong city?
For the regime this was "pre-existing conditions".
https://www.thequint.com/amp/story/news/india/migrants-workers-found-dead-on-irctc-shramik-train-govt-refused-rti-query

13. The regime chose not to take the disease seriously at first. It chose to an arbitrary, unplanned lockdown. It chose to demonise Muslims. All these choices led to making it MORE difficult to fight the disease, while hurting the most vulnerable.

14. I could go on and on, the centralisation of money and authority, the PM Care sFund, the toppling of the MP government in the midst of a pandemic, the attempt to do so in Maharashtra, but the point is that the rich and middle class had enough hospital beds.

15. Today the rich are inconvenienced, so the media, both national and foreign, says, "NOW India is handling things badly." You could have said so when the poor were being persecuted. It always comes around. Don't ignore injustice. For your own sake.

16. If this was your definition of "India handling the first wave well", I really hope we never meet in real life because I may be extremely violent
https://in.news.yahoo.com/video-man-eating-animal-carcass-083000234.html

Silent Modi : क्यों फ़्रॉड है सरकार की पूरी हेल्थ पॉलिसी ? #PunyaPrasunBajpai challenges the figures of COVID infra given by Health Ministry  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WTscWOXAKA8 

Sri Lanka has become the latest country to pave the way for emergency use of Pfizer Vaccines. In India, the issue is still stuck on the government's refusal to indemnify the vaccine against legal cases, something governments across the world have done. 

India's Refusal to Clear Pfizer Vaccines is playing with lives | Barkha Dutt https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzWgw2KtxT4 

When will Corona end | Herd Immunity | Endemic | Vaccination | Sero Survey | Strains & Variants https://youtu.be/8sxtgukyqeg?t=79

Basic explanation of concepts

Infodemic:  From Negligence to Fear..

Stages of Control:

Eradication ( will not happen for COVID, international Cooperation is needed)

Elimination (iNot foreseable as  0 to 18 years is not being vaccination, vaccination is voluntary) -

Control ( we can only control, and make it endemic and have manageable, develop medical infrastructure ) Herd Immunity- (antibodies through Infection and Vaccination.) What is the herd immunity Threshold? For COVID it is estimated to be 60-70%)

India? Serological Survey to find out which antibodies do we have. In june 20, Aug-Sept 20, 3rd Dec-Jan - apparently 21.4 % have developed antibodies)   In Delhi 56%have antobodies  https://youtu.be/8sxtgukyqeg?t=3146

Possible dates for Control on second wave : aug-sept 2021. Complete Vaccination by mid 2022. But we will need a third vaccination after six months, and perhaps every year.

For earlier documentation and Conversations on COVID, see http://emeets.lnwr.in/index.php/covid

Even though oxygen concentrators have been seized, I bet our normally reckless PM, will not use the epidemic act to allow these concentrators into the market or hospitals after a swift pachnama and magistrarially supervised evidence noting.. do you know if there is a provision in the evidence act when such seized essentials can be released for the public good?

Covid and the administration of a tragedy: How India lost the plot. https://www.newindianexpress.com/opinions/2021/apr/30/covid-and-the-administration-of-a-tragedy-how-india-lost-the-plot-2296633.html

When the pandemic broke out last year, showmanship and event management were top priority. Essential tasks like factoring in expert advice were considered less glamorous.

The initial euphoria over the arrival of a decisive leadership after years of listless governance, however, gave way to another grim reality. Senior officials had hoped that Modi would deactivate his suspicious nature and curb his urge to centralise powers and demand unquestioned obedience—now that he had reached the pinnacle. They were soon disappointed, though he did slash through the proverbial inter-ministerial turf battles. But the frequency and intensity with which he started summoning secretaries directly for briefings and presentations were quite unusual, as no PM had tried such micro-management.

It revealed his ‘control freak’ nature, his deliberate bypassing of his ministers.

For earlier documentation and Conversations on COVID, see http://emeets.lnwr.in/index.php/covid

In the third wave, children may get affected in a big way. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7awAaTJCPME&t=24s

India’s Covid crisis: Authorities face criticism over local elections held during pandemic https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9f6O6odU4fQ

For earlier documentation and Conversations on COVID, see http://emeets.lnwr.in/index.php/covid

India's COVID 19 Energency.. Lancet, May 8th 2021.
"The message that COVID-19 was essentially over also slowed the start of India’s COVID-19 vaccination campaign, which has vaccinated less than 2% of the population. At the federal level, India’s vaccination plan soon fell apart. The government abruptly shifted course without discussing the change in policy with states, expanding vaccination to everyone older than 18 years, draining supplies, and creating mass confusion and a market for vaccine doses in which states and hospital systems competed. . "

India must now pursue a two-pronged strategy. First, the botched vaccination campaign must be rationalised and implemented with all due speed. ... The government must work with local and primary health-care centres that know their communities and create an equitable distribution system for the vaccine.

Second, the government must publish accurate data in a timely manner, and forthrightly explain to the public what is happening and what is needed to bend the epidemic curve...... Modi’s actions in attempting to stifle criticism and open discussion during the crisis are inexcusable. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation estimates that India will see a staggering 1 million deaths from COVID-19 by Aug 1. If that outcome were to happen, Modi’s Government would be responsible for presiding over a self-inflicted national catastrophe."  https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01052-7/fulltext

Read more …

Modi Govt Got Arithmetic On Vaccines Utterly Wrong, Very Difficult to Fix the Mess Now:P Chidambaram May 11, 2021 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zPuLHgpByVk

On the costs involved for vaccination, the former Finance Minister said it was not even a point of concern – Assuming a price of Rs 175 per dose, every individual could be vaccinated at a cost of Rs 350 per vaccine. In order to vaccinate a population of 100 crore, it would require Rs 35,000 crore. In fact he added that if additional money was required, the Finance Minister could approach the parliament and there would be no resistance in clearing additional funds.

Responding to the debate on compulsory licencing, Mr Chidambaram said there wasn’t even any need to invoke compulsory licencing, merely the threat of it would have made manufacturers amenable to voluntary licencing, that would have ramped up both supply and availability for India.

https://www.barandbench.com/news/litigation/central-government-covid-vaccine-price-supreme-court The rationale behind the new liberalised pricing policy for the COVID-19 vaccine is to ensure scaling up of vaccine coverage, incentivize vaccine manufacturers to rapidly scale up their production, and to attract new vaccine manufacturers, the Central government has told the Supreme Court. 

Modi Leadership Style Main Reason for India's COVID Mishandling; He's a Megalomaniac—RamachandraGuha
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AFVmsRmFE4Q 

PM Manmohan Singh's letter to PM Modi here: https://theprint.in/india/few-indians...​

Read Health Minister Harsh Vardhan's response to former PM Manmohan Singh's letter:  https://theprint.in/politics/we-expect-youll-offer-same-advice-to-congress-vardhan-replies-to-manmohan-singhs-letter

'No Coherent Policy to Handle Pandemic; - N. Ram

https://youtu.be/PKH3ioEJ7r8?t=1671 on Pandemic

Harsh Vardhan spars with Manmohan Singh & Covid crisis forces Modi govt course correction

https://youtu.be/fD96yvnTpZQ?t=250  

 S Sukla 19th April 2021 -  Its way of containing resultant mass alienation is to constantly keep fomenting paranoia and hatred. That's virtually its only card and also the trump card. Quite unfortunately, that appears to be effective. At least, as yet.

But, the second wave - with its stupendous and dizzyingly rising human cost, may, even then, eventually turn out to be a bit too much. Let's see and, in the meanwhile, keep doing whatever we can. Unless it changes rather sooner than later, it's doom for "India".

From: Mohammad Imran - State-owned vaccine manufacturers sit idle as India scours for jabs: Report While SII and Bharat Biotech, both private firms, struggle to meet India’s domestic requirement besides international obligations, the government is giving no job to seven public sector firms[image: State-owned vaccine manufacturers sit idle as India scours for jabs: Report]

https://www.nationalheraldindia.com/india/state-owned-vaccine-manufacturers-sit-idle-as-india-scours-for-jabs-report 

Shocking as it may be, the Narendra Modi government did not consider any of its own institutes for manufacturing Covid-19 vaccines...These include the Central Research Institute (CRI) in Himachal Pradesh; BCG Vaccine Laboratory (BCGVL), Pasteur Institute of India (PII) and HLL Biotech in Tamil Nadu; Bharat Immunologicals and Biologicals Corporation Limited, Uttar Pradesh; Haffkine Bio-Pharmaceutical Corporation Limited, Maharashtra; and Human Biologicals Institute, Telangana. The state-of-the-art Integrated Vaccine Complex based in Chengalpattu, Tamil Nadu has also been lying idle since its inauguration in 2016, says the Down to earth report.

..Before the Covid-19 pandemic, India was the world leader in vaccine production. But presently, China and USA are manufacturing more Covid-19 vaccines than India.

For earlier documentation and Conversations on COVID, see http://emeets.lnwr.in/index.php/covid

Pandemic Preparedness: The Need for a Public Health — Not a Law Enforcement/National Security — Approach

https://www.aclu.org/report/pandemic-preparedness-need-public-health-not-law-enforcementnational-security-approach

ACLU warning in 2008 about the dangers to rights posed by law enforcement approach.

The spread of a new, deadly strain of avian influenza has raised fears of a potential human pandemic. While the virus is not easily transmissible to humans, were it to mutate to be more highly contagious to or between humans—a possibility whose probability is unknown—an influenza pandemic could occur. Government agencies have an essential role to play in helping to prevent and mitigate epidemics.

Unfortunately, in recent years,  policymakers are resorting to law enforcement and national security-oriented measures that not only suppress individual rights unnecessarily, but have proven to be ineffective in stopping the spread of disease and saving lives.

Conflating Public Health with National Security and Law Enforcement Rather than focusing on well-established measures for protecting the lives and health of Americans, policymakers have recently embraced an approach that views public health policy through the prism of national security and law enforcement. This model assumes that we must “trade liberty for security.” As a result, instead of helping individualsand communities through education and provision of health care, today’s pandemic prevention focuses on taking aggressive, coercive actions against those who are sick. People, rather than the disease, become the enemy

To Spectacle-ise  is also politics.. 

 'Tika Utsav': Vaccinate all eligible people from April 11 to 14, PM Modi tells CMs https://www.thenewsminute.com/article/tika-utsav-vaccinate-all-eligible-people-april-11-14-pm-modi-tells-cms-146817 

Not to Politicise, Is Politics.
"Do not politicise this" is a political statement --
one that is used by the establishment including anchors

Maharashtra CM to PM: Urge leaders not to play politics in Covid fight
The BJP and MVA have been engaged in a war of words over the vaccination shortage in Maharashtra over the last few days. https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/mumbai/maharashtra-cm-to-pm-urge-leaders-not-to-play-politics-in-covid-fight-7265170/ 

'Hue and Cry by Certain States': Harsh Vardhan's Vaccine Math to Counter 'Partisanship' Claim https://www.news18.com/news/india/coronavirus-news-live-updates-pm-narendra-modi-maharashtra-mumbai-lockdown-night-curfew-delhi-india-cases-tips-3617864.html 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sN_uQ-5qgrY  9th April  Shah says the states had been given all the rights to take decisions about lockdown, containment zones, micro containment zones etc

Modi or Mamata, Rahul or Stalin, no election rally is following Covid rules despite surge
Thanks to the election season, rallies by all major political parties are seeing huge crowds gather but with no social distancing norms being followed & a majority of people without masks. https://theprint.in/india/modi-or-mamata-rahul-or-stalin-no-election-rally-is-following-covid-rules-despite-surge/627161/ 

As of March 20, of the 494 adverse events reported, 124 were deaths, 305 were serious events that required hospitalisation and 65 were severe events.

https://m.economictimes.com/industry/healthcare/biotech/healthcare/deaths-after-vaccination-doubled-in-2-weeks-report/amp_articleshow/81977018.cms 

Covishield Blood Clot Risk Minuscule but Govt Not Transparent, Need Urgent Inquiry—Gagandeep Kang https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BV5BD_DJvK8   in India we simply don't have any official information whether there have been worrying blood clots with a low platelet count after taking the Covishield vaccine. reports of rare forms of blood clots showing up in a small number of this vaccine's recipients in Europe had sent alarm bells ringing among national regulators in various countries. Dr Kang said that these conditions are marked by blood clots in veins in the brain and abdomen accompanied by low platelet counts.

This is an extract from a whats app post by Eric DS

What is the Peltzman Effect?

The Peltzman Effect is a theory which states that people are more likely to engage in risky behavior when security measures have been mandated. The Peltzman Effect is named for Sam Peltzman's postulation about mandating the use of seatbelts in automobiles - it would led to more accidents. Safety perception increases risk appetite.

Peltzman effect means behaviour compensating for the perceived risk. In other terms, people become more careful when they sense greater risk and less careful if they feel more protected.

This means that vaccines are giving a sense of security which leads to a increased risky behaviour.

But the problem is that while vaccines neither give immediate protection or full protection (against infection as against death), the sense of security unfortunately starts much earlier, even before the actual injection. And Peltzman effect comes into play: people wear masks with less caution, do not maintain distance as soon as they reach vaccination centres.

The Peltzman effect in fact started for most people even before they took the vaccine. Many people felt protected just looking at the vaccination numbers. The mask usage, social distancing and hand sanitisation have become progressively less. While this is attributed mainly to pandemic fatigue, the Peltzman effect cannot be ignored.

While this behaviour is dangerous for general public, this can be disastrous for health care workers who directly deal with Covid 19 patients. A lot of them can get infected in the present second wave impairing the health care services.

The Peltzman effect is also evident in the drastic decline in the usage of PPE kits by the healthcare workers.

It is important to vaccinate the majority of the people at risk. But it is also important to be aware of Peltzman effect and be more careful until the effect of vaccination takes us close to herd immunity.

Post to My Nephew: Vaccine Hesitancy

I appreciate your vaccine hesitancy..
The Human body has been designed to fight and more and more vaccines are probably making our body less of a fighting machine. My problem is that almost most of our activities today are making our body less of a fighting machine. Our food for example is so contaminated that most of the body's resistance is being taken up for fighting it. The air we breathe.. same issue.
So I do suspect that our normal lives have compromised our immunity system, and it would be good if we do take some immunity boosting activity.. like pranayam, exercise, Kadha etc. I remember that whenever we had any cold.. mummy used to make a khashayam.. I had grown fond of it.. as I like the kalameeree taste.. Also the cold pressed coconut oil and the jaggery we used to have and the "boiled" rice.. and the fresh fish.. all helped .. otherwise my unhealthy habbits would have consumed me a long ago.

Coming back to vaccine hesitancy. I too was very skeptical because political leaders like Trump were making bombastic statements about the virus and how soon they will bring in the vaccine. They even did short cuts by certifying the use of vaccine on an "emergency use" basis.
But now that so many million people have taken it, we can at least be clear that it is safe.

How effective will it be.. the evidence shows that it is at least for the time-being.. very very few cases of post vaccine infections have been reported.. and if they are infections, the severity is much less.. Making any future infection.. feel like a common cough and cold.. provided that we take proper care at the slightest signs of any symptoms.. like hydrating ourselves, doing things like kapal bharati on the stomach, improving our hygiene improving our food, taking Khada, etc. etc.

Now if we dont take the vaccine:
My problem will be how long you will keep yourself "safe"? As more and more people get vaccinated, and people start getting complacent, we are probably increasing the 'unsafeness" and we will have to be more and more careful.. and take more and more precautions. Not just the physical discomfort, and also other immunity increasing processes.
The other problem is: you may suddenly have to travel in an emergency.. and at that time, they will ask for all kinds of tests, and vaccination certificates. For example you will not be able to go to a football match, as you wont get the "virus visa". Work wise also, you maybe compromised.. as when the rest of the people have moved on.. and have definite anti-bodies and there maynot be an epidemic.. but the virus will still be there.. waiting for that vulnerable guy, who slowly starts getting lax on his precautions..
Thinking of all this I decided to take the vaccine.. and today about 21 days after my shot, as people in my building are getting infected, and I stay safe.. I definitely feel safer that what I would have had I not taken the jab. Now you have to decide, if everytime you hear someone sneeze in the background, you have to quickly look around, and see which way the wind is blowing.. Just imagine going to the beach a few months now, and there is a strong wind, and many people around.. what are you going to do?

For earlier documentation and Conversations on COVID, see http://emeets.lnwr.in/index.php/covid