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We need a public hearing on the Exit Polls to examine the designers, and data collection and tabulation process.. and the conversion of voting percentages to seats .
SG: Exit polls are carried out by asking people whom they voted for when they exit the polling booth. It is possible knowing the terror of bjp , and knowing who owns everything, people say what they think is safe and necessarily the truth. So more than transparency it reflects on the political power that exists in such places
JD. How exactly is the question asked, to whom, sampling methodology, and corelation of result with disaggregation based on sample and constituency wise spread, both in terms of vote share and that impact on no of seats. What is the extrapolation formulae etc. The sample targets segment wise and the actual collection. It is not that every voter will be able to understand it, but civil groups could have rating, rankings and public scrutiny so that the poll agencies and the media houses work to some standards.
SS: The exit poll results were publicised after the completion of regular poll. The essential purpose of the exit poll is to increase the TRP and thereby the advertisement revenue. The very fact that for the same state exit polls by different agencies offer - at times strikingly, different results should make one discount the significance of such polls. Asking for some sort of "control" - other than the restrictions on timing already in place, may very well turn out to be counterproductive; particularly, in the prevailing conditions. I. Results from different agencies are different.
II. Assuming there's only one result, it's either accurate or close to accurate or wide off the mark.
III. Whatever may be the case, results for individual constituencies are not available.
IV. Even without any exit poll, the potential MLAs can very much be sounded out unless they're cordoned off.
V. So, what's the point?
JD. The line that nothing can be done, the system is corrupted and till we defeat capitalism nothing can be done, is too defeatist. Every one agrees that there is a nexus (money power etc).. but there needs to be some checks.. not so much through regulation, but more in terms of disclosure.
But exit polls are done only after elections are over.
JD The exit polls are used to pressurise potentially winning candidates, into shifting parties.. they are most vulnerable at this point, as they have gone for broke at this stage...
After exit polls, senior BJP & Congress leaders in Uttarakhand https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/dehradun/after-exit-polls-sr-bjp-cong-leaders-in-ukhand/articleshow/90088566.cms While BJP rushed senior leader Kailash Vijayvargiya on Sunday to assist party leader and former CM Ramesh Pokhriyal Nishank in preparing for any political exigency, Congress deputed Rajya Sabha MP Deepender Hooda to Dehradun on Tuesday. Chhattisgarh CM Bhupesh Baghel is scheduled to arrive in the city on Wednesday and stay put in the state capital till things take a final shape after the results.
Kautilya Singh / TNN / Mar 9, 2022,
Of much greater significance is the opinion poll. That may influence the voters' mood and inclination.
JD: But isnt that a important contribution to the democratic process, provided that there is a level playing field and a "quiet time" We need more transparency.. on both the exit as well as opinion. The transparency should also percolate to the amount of finance each channel has got from different parties, Corporate,
Shivam Vij in how to win an election writes about the power of the exit poll in swinging votes. People (undecided) will to vote for a candidate they believe will win. So it’s important to show BJP is winning.
Why Axis MyIndia does exit polls but not a pre-poll seat forecast https://theprint.in/politics/why-axis-myindia-does-exit-polls-but-not-a-pre-poll-seat-forecast/237277/ SHIVAM VIJ
19 May, 2019 Axis MyIndia's head Pradeep Gupta Reasons: political clients, ( putting out opinion polls numbers just before elections upsets someone or the other.) surveyors' safety (When the surveyors visit after an opinion poll, to, say, do the exit poll, they often meet hostile locals) and a long-drawn election (It is not useful to do a survey when candidates have not been announced in many places) .
Six reasons why the media should stop publishing opinion and exit polls
The media should have more faith in their reporters than in unscientific surveys. https://www.newslaundry.com/2015/11/24/six-reasons-why-the-media-should-stop-publishing-opinion-and-exit-polls By Shivam Vij 24 Nov, 2015
As it is the Indian media’s credibility sinks further with every news cycle. By taking opinion and exit polls seriously, news channels are trading credibility for TRPs. They need to collectively decide that they don’t need these surveys to gauge public mood in elections. A post-poll survey is one that is conducted a day after the voting, whereas an exit poll is conducted by surveying voters as they come out of the polling booth. A post-poll survey is by design less likely to get it wrong.
We don’t need surveys.. 1) They are unscientific: 2) They don’t help us gauge public mood: 3) Media doesn’t spend enough to conduct good surveys: 4) They possibly hurt democracy: 5) They never get it right: 6) They are prone to political manipulation:
Since polls, eco survey, ratings and all such exercises affect democratic functioning all of them by whatever name should be subjected to scrutiny, so that journalists and citizen journalists can comment on them.