The good, bad and ugly about India’s post-pandemic labour market https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/the-good-bad-and-ugly-about-india-s-post-pandemic-labour-market-101677609175350.html Abhishek Jha and Roshan Kishore Mar 01, 2023
The larger picture, an HT analysis of unit level data shows, is that the post-pandemic Indian labour markets show some trends that are good, and some that are downright alarming...
agricultural employment continues to remain above pre-pandemic levels. That some workers who came back to their villages did not return also becomes clear from the fact that share of rural population (in the PLFS sample) and share of unpaid self-employed in rural areas has continued to increase even in the 2021-22 round.
a comparison shows that real wages for both salaried and casual workers increased at a much faster pace between 2004-05 and 2011-12 than they did between 2017-18 and 2021-22. CAGR of real wages for salaried and casual workers from 2004-05 to 2011-12 was 4.1% and 6.8% in EUS. In PLFS, the CAGR from 2017-18 to 2021-22 is 0.02% and 4.6%. A lower growth in wages means a lower growth in mass incomes and hence lower growth in consumption demand.
Unemployment rate among 19-29 year olds with a graduate degree stood at 29.1% in India in 2021-22. This statistic needs to be read with the fact that Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR) for this cohort is just 53.7% compared to 62.4% among older people. What makes matters worse is that unpaid work hides actual unemployment.