Were the Assembly Elections in Maharashtra Manipulated? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=riLvrHJe4x8 Interview with Praveen Chakravarty. Paranjoy Online can you add more people as voters in five months than you did in just the previous five full years . Why is a BJP leader responding, when we put this question to the Election Commission>
Youtube transcript: (under edit )
tCongress party's data
analytics department has earlier been a
political economist and even an
investment banker in Wall Street New
York thank you so much Pravin uh the
topic of discussion is the recent
controversy that followed Rahul Gandhi's
article in the Indian Express on the 6th
of June and this was followed by
rejoinders by the newspaper itself as
well as the chief minister of
Maharashtra Deendra Fnis the the short
point is what Rahul Gandhi said was a
repetition of what he had said at a
press conference on the 9th of February
and the election commission had
responded
earlier to the same allegations leveled
by the Congress party in the form of a
66page note that was submitted on the
24th of December the question why are we
going back to these allegations why are
we going back and forth to these
allegations at this juncture in the
middle of June simple answer to that is
the questions are serious in nature and
there have been no answers forthcoming
it's as simple as that
i think all the things that you referred
to in your question about perpetually a
response a 66-page response from the
election commission let me give you the
chronology of it on the 3rd of December
2024
soon after the Maharashtra elections we
raised a certain set of issues about an
abnormal
dubious and a sudden increase in the
number of voters in Maharashtra
we held we person we had a physical
meeting with the then chief election
commissioner and I was present in that
meeting on the 3rd of December the chief
election commissioner his other election
commissioners were there and then the
staff were there and from our side there
were about seven or eight of us um and
we raised a set of questions
and the chief election commissioner's
response
was that we will send you a note or a
response
um on the 7th of December
we put it in a right we I put it in
writing specifically what is it that we
were asking for and this was given in
writing to Mr rajie Kumar the then chief
election commissioner am I correct
absolutely please continue so the 66page
response came to the 3rd December
meeting and the 7th December letter and
the 66 page response was a nonresponse
it merely
outlined the process for adding a voter
deleting a voter reporting turnout
numbers and who does what and it it was
basically a copy paste from an election
manual process manual that's not what we
asked we asked some very straightforward
pointed questions
how is it that there were nearly 40 lakh
new voters that were added in just five
or six months between the Lok Saba
election and the Vidanta that is 2024
May till November and and the number I
have is a little over 41 lakh
and uh in the period the five years uh
for the Lok Sabha numbers uh the number
of voters it's 2014 to 2019 is over 122
lakhs almost three times
no that's okay so that but see that's
not the the the the the right comparison
let me tell you the comparison every 5
years there's a Lok Sabha election and a
Vidans election in the state of
Maharashtra as it is in every other
state in this country
2019 May there was a Lok Sabha election
2019 October and November there was a
Vidans Sabha election in Maharashtra 5
years later 2024 May there was a look
Saba election 2024 November there was a
Vidan Sabha election so between 2019
Vidans Sabha election in Maharashtra and
2024 Lok Saba election 5 years
there were 32 lakh new voters that were
added in Maharashtra
in five months between May 2024
and November 2024 there were nearly 40
lakh 40 41 lakh whatever voters that
were added think about it there were
more voters added in the state of
Maharashtra in 5 months than they were
added in the previous five years
to even a fifth grade
student this would sound absurd and
illogical simply because these are
people that we're talking about people
don't fall from trees they're not
statistics that go up and down barta
party the chief minister of Maharashtra
and even newspapers like the Indian
Express have argued that this is not out
of the ordinary this is not unusual
whereas you are saying it is out of the
ordinary it is most unusual am I correct
i will present
data to you all right i have compared
the last
20 years in the state of Maharashtra and
everywhere else in the country
it's just a very simple logical question
people don't need to know numbers can
you add more people as voters in 5
months than you did in just the previous
five full years all right okay it has
never happened in India's electoral
history anywhere okay that's how
abnormal it is all right let me move to
another point one of the points that has
been made by your party the Congress
party and others as well is that the
adult population of Maharashtra that is
people above the age of 18 on the 1st of
January 2024
was approximately 954
lakh and the number of voters on the
electoral roles is more than that it is
970 lakhs now we haven't had a census
that's another subject altogether but
these are guesstimates or projections of
the population of Maharashtra or the
people in Maharashtra who were are
eligible to vote and it's a very very
serious allegation that the number of
voters is more than the number of people
who are eligible to vote correct so so
it is not the Congress party that is
saying this
9.54
cr adult population about the age of 18
in the state of Maharashtra in 2024 is
an estimate by a population report by
the ministry of health and family
welfare of the union government which is
the Narendra Modi's government okay
that's their estimate it's not the
Congress party's estimate it is an
official published document
if the Modi government says that there
were 9.5 cr
people adults about the age of 18 in
Maharashtra in 2024
how did we add how did the election
commission add 9.7
cr voters first nobody even even if it
was 9.5 cr no state ever add 100% of all
adults as voters now this is not just
100% there are 16 lakh more voters than
the estimated population you could argue
it's a population estimate yes it is a
population estimate but guess what these
are demographic trends any demographer
will tell you that these numbers do not
change so dramatically so as a simple
exercise I'll tell you in that same
report they have this for every state in
the country you compare that with Hana
with Jark and with every other state it
tallies all right let me move on and ask
you a different question the election
commission says that political parties
all political parties were involved at
each and every stage of the preparation
of the voter roles and out of sever I
mean several tens of thousands of BLA's
booth level agents there were over 25 or
27,000 booth level agents that were
appointed by the Congress
the two aspects were there any
complaints made about the number of
people who were registered as voters and
the second part of the question will
about the voter turnout yeah so first
the number of voters okay so there is a
certain process by the election
commission for addition and deletion of
voters now the election commission's
defense
and surprisingly it's not just the
election commission but it's the BJP
leaders that are defending the election
commission on there they have which
intrigues me which I don't know why
leave that aside their defense is that
booth level agents from the Congress
party either a should have raised it at
that time or did not raise it now both
of this are wrong are wrong first I will
give you an example of a constituency
called Shiri in the constituency of
Shiri there were enormous number of fake
voters that were added and these were
voters that were brought in from other
states and our candidate you are making
very strong allegations without do you
have any proof so that is what I'm
coming to okay our candidate has
actually submitted a written complaint
complaint at the time of election she
has submitted a written complaint with
the officer there with video evidence
where she's gone and asked those some of
these college students do you have aar
in Maharashtra are you a resident of
Maharashtra you a voter here and they do
not so it's not just a loose allegation
there's a video evidence and this was
raised at that right at that time okay
the second question is I think we have
to step back a little bit on this I hear
this a lot saying what was the congress
party's organization doing while this
was happening now were you sleeping on
the job were you sleeping on the job the
congress party's organizational strength
or lack of it aside let me let me give
you an example let's say you there's a
theft in your home and you go and
complain to the cops what if the cops
turn around and said "It's not my
problem your security guard was
sleeping."
I mean it is as bizarre as this as a cop
do you or do you not have a
responsibility does the election
commission of India not have a
constitutional responsibility for fair
elections in this country or have they
outsourced it to all political parties
if the political parties have to defend
fair elections by themselves why do we
need an independent constitutional body
called the election commission of India
this is exactly what Dr britkar in the
constituent assembly debates at the time
of setting up the election commission
asked said very categorically we need an
independent election commission now one
minute I'm going taking a few steps back
because what Mr dendra Fnavish the chief
minister of Maharashtra is claiming that
between 2014 and 2019 yes there were 63
lakh new voters so what 2009 to 14 there
were 75 lakh new voters nothing
extraordinary he claims I'm giving you
numbers from his article in the Indian
express 2004 to 2009 1 cr new voters so
so what's unusual and then he says
between the assembly
uh and the look bubbles usually the vote
share goes up during the assembly
elections it was 5% more in 2004 4% more
in 2009 3% more in 2014 1% more in 2019
and 2024 by about 4% these are Mr fnov's
numbers printed in a newspaper called
the Indian Express first our questions
were to an independent constitutional
body called the Election Commission of
India why is a BJP leader responding on
their behalf we never asked the BJP this
that's number one number two it it's
very clear to me that Mr fatnavis or
whoever wrote that article for him does
not quite understand statistics of
population numbers or trends the
question that we asking is very simple
you add 40 lakh voters in 5 months you
add 32 lakh voters in 5 years
you it's completely illogical to say you
had 40 lakh voters in 2024 you added 30
lakh voters in in 2004 so it's not very
uh uh abnormal
the most fundamental thing is 30 lakh in
2004 is not comparable to 40 lakh in
2024 because I'll give you a simple
example when in 2004 when 30 lakh motors
were added in five months between Lok
Sabha do you know how many were added in
the five years before 61 lakhs
61 lakhs so please understand the
context of these numbers 40 lakh were
added which were more than what you
added in the previous 5 years so anytime
somebody points out another year where
there were 40 lakh find out how many
were added in the previous 5 years i
guarantee you it would not be lower
there's been another criticism of Rahul
Gandhi's article that was published in
the Indian Express on the 6th of June
and some people claim that you wrote it
for him i don't know whether that's
correct or not that is incorrect all
right fine but it has been said that he
compared apples with oranges he compared
provisional figures with final figures
and therefore the comparisons are not
valid this is was one of the allegations
made would you like to respond see the
voter turnout process I mean it's I
think it's all there in the public
domain numbers that were cited so I
don't think there's anything more for me
to say on that all right uh Pravin this
was is really the another very
contentious issue that on the 20 20th of
November 2024
uh the day of voting the provisional
figures that were given at 5 p.m which
was 58.22%
and when the final figures came the
following morning it jumped up by more
than 8% 66.05
05 no a little under 8% more than 7 and
a half% and nearly 76 lakh additional
votes were counted
and many people arguing that uh so what
you know and and what has been alleged
is that there were 12,000 boots in 85
Vitans Sabha seats and if you take it
booth wise 600 votes new votes per booth
after 5:00 p.m and people saying it's
not it's it's it's it it's not possible
it's not possible that's what uh um
people are alleging but what has been
alleged on the other side that's the BJP
and others he said no no no it is very
much possible that uh the number of uh
people who can vote and number of people
who uh can vote in an hour is being
played around with so so I mean I'm I'm
not really sure i'm very confused as to
what is the actual situation on the
ground see and I think I think that is
almost all deliberate i think this the
the confusion is very deliberate to
distort and distract from the main
argument and I think we're all missing
the woods uh missing the trees for the
woods here you have to take a step back
par what are we talking about here we're
talking about some some basic facts what
are the basic facts were there more
voters added in five months than in the
previous 5 years yes or no the answer is
a categorical yes is is that bizarre and
illogical yes now how is it that there
are 16 lakh more voters than the
estimated adult population by the
government of India number four and this
is where it's important you had a
election in Maharashtra in exactly the
same constituencies with exactly the
same political alliances formations
just five six months ago okay no you you
you made this point after that no after
that in 6 months sorry in the election
the exact BJP alliance actually does
pretty poorly
in five months what happens is I'll tell
you what the BJP alone wins 90% of the
seats it contested 89% exactly 132 seats
out of 149 let me tell you candidates
who did something and and and in Yes it
was against this 5 months earlier it was
32% correct the strike rate of 90% for a
sitting for a sitting government is
unheard of in India's electoral history
how do you go from actually losing to
setting shattering all sorts of records
in India's 70-year electoral history by
winning 90% of the seats were people in
absolute love and adulation the last
time I checked Sachin Tendulkar or
Amitita Bachan did not contest for the
BJP what happened there and and one
particular uh uh pe group of people in a
Vidan Sabha constituency in Cholaur they
were also very suspicious they wanted to
have their own uh in informal internal
election but the the authorities in
Maharashtra the Maharashtra government
just said no you can't do this only the
election commission is authorized to
cons conduct any kind of election so
they just stopped them exactly so what I
am going I'm constantly trying to do
here is I'm pointing out some absolutely
bizarre anomalies abnormal abnormalities
and I'm asking for an explanation got
you whether it's voter turnout turnout
this that I don't care i want the
election commission to explain all right
now let's look at one specific
constituency uh that's Kami the
international congress the candidate sur
yadavra bua he u has not filed a
petition but now you're saying out of
112 election petitions fine filed of
which 28 are from the Indian national
congress this is not a petition yet it
is being alleged that
the share of the BJP vote shot up from
roughly 100 1.19 lakh in 2024 Lok Sabha
to 1.75
lakhs 5 months later in the Vidhan Sabha
with 35,000
new voters so this is like a case study
the question is let's assume all these
numbers are correct why has Mr
not filed an election petition if he
really thinks that there was some sort
of a manipulation that took place okay
so since you brought up one particular
constituency I'll tell you that was
cited as an example and I'll tell you
what is uh specific um to that
constituency in the Lok Sabha election
held in May in KI the Congress wins a
certain number of votes the BJP alliance
wins a certain number of votes which is
lower and the Congress wins that
election in KTI five months later the
Cong in the Vidans election the Congress
gets the exact same number of votes
or little more also a little more little
more okay so it got more votes than it
did 5 months before and 5 months before
it actually won that seat 5 months later
the Congress gets exactly this so
basically what am I saying the same
number of people in KTI who voted for
the Congress in in the Lok SA election
came and voted for the Congress in the
Vidans bi-election there was nothing
that changed how did you win there and
lose your because new voters came and
voted for the BJP pravin Mr fnavis the
chief minister of Maharashtra says there
is nothing unusual he said the same
thing happened in Madha in Van Wani in
Sriur where the candidates opposed to
the Mahayuti coalition led by the BJP
that is the Mahavikas Agadi coalition uh
so in Madha it was the Pawar group uh in
vani it was the ship udav group and the
last one in sri rampur was the congress
and you won by roughly in these three
constituencies 18% 13% and 12% so this
according to Mr fnavis shows that by
citing the example of ki you are
actually misleading people see I think I
think you you're also falling for the
deliberate confusion strategy i think
like kami there are 50 what what is the
what is the point about ki it's not
about what percentage of voters
increased and all that
in the election held 5 months back
certain number of people came out and
voted for the congress alliance and the
congress alliance won
5 months later
similar number of people came out and
voted for the congress alliance and the
congress alliance lo lost there are 50
such such examples
none of the examples that whoever that
BJP chief minister cited
conform conforms to this trend they're
confusing you with all this percentage
and all one second if the rising
electoral numbers alone
was a important factor or the most
important factor in the victory of the
BJP or the BJP led coalition how come
the opposition coalition won 53 seats
mainly with victory margins that were
greater than the increase in the number
of voters so what are you saying they
should have won 100% of seats no but
what's the log what's the argument the
argument is that you still won in at
least 52 seats and your victory margin
was more than the increase in the number
of voters it's that's what I'm saying
it's please okay please tell me examples
of constituencies where five months
before all right the Congress alliance
won the same number of people that voted
for the Congress alliance voted for the
Congress alliance in the state election
also but this time the Congress alliance
lost isn't it bizarre okay isn't it
bizarre and that's all I'm asking it's
not about whether votes increase you
lost whether percent no no it's a sto
there's a trend here there's a pattern
you know okay i'm about to conclude this
interview i need quick answers to two
short questions i'm going beyond uh
Maharashtra to some extent the first is
political because Mr favis has said you
know the Congress is trying to justify
it's the loss it is going to incur in
Bihar uh when Vidans elections take
place uh we don't have the dates it's
sometime in October November 2025 so the
short point is BJP is saying you know
you're prep I mean you're poor losers
sour gra
our questions were to the election
commissioner
no interest in responding to anything
right last question on the appointment
of the election commissioner we know
there were lots of committees
administration reform committee law
commission on the body that should
decide who becomes election
commissioners and then chronologically
they become the chief election
commissioner and the law has been
changed we know that um so what's the
problem i mean you have the leader of
the opposition is part of that committee
Mr rahul Gandhi yes there is the Supreme
Court has
voluntarily or willingly abdicated uh
its position in that committee the Chief
Justice of India or his nominee or her
nominee and of course he has the prime
minister no no Supreme Court has not
voluntarily abdicated the Supreme
Court's recommendation for that
committee was the prime minister of
India the leader of the opposition and
the chief justice of the Supreme Court
to
choose the next election commissioners
that's how important that election
commission body was the government of
India brought in a law and change change
it and what did they do they kicked out
the chief justice of India and said any
minister of the choice of the prime
minister that's right okay strong
language huh chief justice being kicked
out yeah and then a meeting is called to
choose an ex-election commissioners and
the prime minister was free to bring any
minister of his choice and surprise who
does he bring the home minister Amit Sha
why are you surprised i'm think I mean
obviously I'm being uh sarcastic here so
it's very very clear it's what Americans
would call a packed committee thank you
so much Pravin for giving us your time
and for answering all the questions and
uh the viewers of this program will
decide whether your views and your
numbers and your opinions are more
credible than those of your political
opponents thank you once again you've
just heard Pravin Chakraarti chairman of
the AllIndia Professionals Congress
former investment banker and political
economist and now a spokesperson of the
Indian National Congress