Israel-Hamas, Ukraine-Russia and China: John Mearsheimer on why the US is in serious trouble! https://youtu.be/62FCVJycwSA?t=96
Israel-Hamas, Ukraine-Russia and China: John Mearsheimer on why the US is in serious trouble! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=62FCVJycwSA https://youtu.be/29s8a6oskk8
The Middle East crisis will have have severe repercussions for Israel, its neighbors, and U.S. foreign policy. Israel's response to Hamas's attacks is expected to continue to provoke anger across the Middle East, potentially fueling jihadist movements and escalating conflicts with other groups, contributing to regional instability. The U.S. has a vital interest in maintaining stability in the Persian Gulf, but the Israel-Hamas conflict threatens to undermine this.
It's crucial to acknowledge that Russia, rather than constituting a substantial threat to the U.S., has the potential to be an ally in containing China. However, the U.S.-supported campaign in Ukraine has inadvertently drawn Russia closer to China, contravening the principles of balance-of-power politics, and this commitment to Ukraine is likely to remain.
All this conflict risks diverting American focus from East Asia, where efforts to forge a coalition to address a significant strategic challenge are underway, it's in Australia's interest to collaborate with the U.S. in deterring China. Beijing's optimal outcome involves the U.S. remaining deeply involved in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, preventing a full pivot to East Asia.
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The crisis in the Middle East is likely to have terrible consequences for Israel, its neighbours and U.S. foreign policy. Israel’s military response to Hamas’s attacks will surely trigger outrage across the Middle East, fueling jihadism, and might even lead to wars with Hezbollah and Iran. The U.S. has a vested interest in preserving stability in the Persian Gulf, but the Israel-Hamas war will lead to a more unstable region.
At the same time, Russia, far from being a serious threat to the U.S., should be its ally to contain China. However, the American-backed Ukraine campaign has foolishly pushed Russia closer to China, which is a violation of balance-of-power politics 101. The U.S. is now so deeply involved in Ukraine and has so committed its credibility to defeating Russia and preserving Ukrainian sovereignty that Washington will surely continue backing Kyiv for the foreseeable future.
Making matters worse, the new Middle East conflict will also distract America from East Asia where the U.S. has been working to put together a balancing coalition to contain a truly serious strategic threat. In that intensifying security competition, Australians have a deep-seated interest in working with the U.S. to deter China.
For Beijing, the best outcome would be if Washington remains deeply committed and frustrated in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, so the U.S. can’t fully pivot to East Asia.